Gen. Fonseka arrest has elicited a range of reactions from different fractions; local and international. It is interesting to see that the hysteria of the opposition protests is directly proportional to the political impact, this arrest is having on their particular parties.
As I indicated on my earlier blog, the UNP leadership, who stand to gain most from the incidence has resided to issuing statement on the legality of the arrest, while JVP, the party that stand to loose most are carrying out violent protest. While the opposition is crying foul, the NGO's and INGOs have joined the band wagon, United States is concerned, even the usually calm Ban Ki-Moon is alarmed.
I pointed out in my previous blog that the government would not gain any political milage from arresting the already unpopular General, instead government stand to suffer some political damage as the opposition protests mount. Even foreign governments have expressed their displeasure. The public also seems to be divided on the issue, some argue that arresting Gen. Fonseka is the correct move as he has vilolated the law, some claim his crimes are not severe for such treatment.
These factors show that the government is actually suffering some political damage for the arrest. Before this incident the topic discussed on most news media was, " How would the opposition contest in the fourth coming parliamentary elections". The disagreements had even begun to get so sour that some fractions of the opposition were even starting to balme other parties as doing governments dirty work by resisting a common opposition alliance. By arresting Gen. Fonseka governmnet has changed the topic and has made the environment unfavorable to themselves. Why would the government do this? Specially on the brink of a parliamentary election, where the government is expecting a massive 2/3 mandate from the people, and at a time the opposition seemed to be committing harakiri, why would the government give them a point to coalesce.
Many observes seems to have missed this point. The reason presumably lies with certain statements Gen.Fonseka made immediately after the election. After the election, when the government was arresting , those who were believed to be associated with military coup, Gen Fonseka challenged the government to arrest him instead, he further claimed that he is aware of the illegal orders of high ranking government officials and if any harm is to come to him these sensitive secrets would be released.
Gen. Fonsekas "Gota ordered them shot" story even after being retracted publicly, draw huge attention form international agencies, that Minsiter Mahinda Samarasinghe had to brief the UN highcommision explaining the falsity of the statement. In this context the latest claim by Fonseka would have ellicited much more pestering from international agencies , forein governmneta and LTTE lobby. Fonseal would have surely made that one of his campaign slogans as he did in his presidential campaign. This continuous babbling of government commiting illegal actions would have made the LTTE lobby and foregin governmnets to call for a fresh round of investigation on the final phase of war.
Government by arresting Gen. Fonseka has effectively nullified this "illegal action" claim , and has prevented exasperating actions by international bodies that would destabilize the country.
Any other previous governmnet would have choosen the politically correct path of , letting Gen. Fonseka be and postponed facing the repurcussions of his irresponsible statements. This governmnet is not like any other, specially Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksha, when he sees a problem he faces it head on, by doing so on this matter he has averted another adversity that would have hurled upon the government and war heroes.
As I indicated on my earlier blog, the UNP leadership, who stand to gain most from the incidence has resided to issuing statement on the legality of the arrest, while JVP, the party that stand to loose most are carrying out violent protest. While the opposition is crying foul, the NGO's and INGOs have joined the band wagon, United States is concerned, even the usually calm Ban Ki-Moon is alarmed.
I pointed out in my previous blog that the government would not gain any political milage from arresting the already unpopular General, instead government stand to suffer some political damage as the opposition protests mount. Even foreign governments have expressed their displeasure. The public also seems to be divided on the issue, some argue that arresting Gen. Fonseka is the correct move as he has vilolated the law, some claim his crimes are not severe for such treatment.
These factors show that the government is actually suffering some political damage for the arrest. Before this incident the topic discussed on most news media was, " How would the opposition contest in the fourth coming parliamentary elections". The disagreements had even begun to get so sour that some fractions of the opposition were even starting to balme other parties as doing governments dirty work by resisting a common opposition alliance. By arresting Gen. Fonseka governmnet has changed the topic and has made the environment unfavorable to themselves. Why would the government do this? Specially on the brink of a parliamentary election, where the government is expecting a massive 2/3 mandate from the people, and at a time the opposition seemed to be committing harakiri, why would the government give them a point to coalesce.
Many observes seems to have missed this point. The reason presumably lies with certain statements Gen.Fonseka made immediately after the election. After the election, when the government was arresting , those who were believed to be associated with military coup, Gen Fonseka challenged the government to arrest him instead, he further claimed that he is aware of the illegal orders of high ranking government officials and if any harm is to come to him these sensitive secrets would be released.
Gen. Fonsekas "Gota ordered them shot" story even after being retracted publicly, draw huge attention form international agencies, that Minsiter Mahinda Samarasinghe had to brief the UN highcommision explaining the falsity of the statement. In this context the latest claim by Fonseka would have ellicited much more pestering from international agencies , forein governmneta and LTTE lobby. Fonseal would have surely made that one of his campaign slogans as he did in his presidential campaign. This continuous babbling of government commiting illegal actions would have made the LTTE lobby and foregin governmnets to call for a fresh round of investigation on the final phase of war.
Government by arresting Gen. Fonseka has effectively nullified this "illegal action" claim , and has prevented exasperating actions by international bodies that would destabilize the country.
Any other previous governmnet would have choosen the politically correct path of , letting Gen. Fonseka be and postponed facing the repurcussions of his irresponsible statements. This governmnet is not like any other, specially Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksha, when he sees a problem he faces it head on, by doing so on this matter he has averted another adversity that would have hurled upon the government and war heroes.
The Govt always knew it was going to have problems pertaining to SF. The nature of such problems however differ based on the context.
ReplyDeleteIf SF was 'free', then the problems would be more of an external nature, with SF 'revealing all' and the International Community being the main source of such problems.
If SF was under arrest, then the problems would be more of an internal nature caused mainly by local protestors
It would appear that the Govt has opted for the latter course of action.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete@dheshapaluwa
ReplyDeleteNice analysis.
I too believe MR/GR thought about the country instead of cheap political gain they could have made with Gonseka destroying/undermining the country with his filthy mouth fulfilling the contract his Western masters gave him. It shows clearly what kind of leadership they are and the difference in mentality, compared to Ranil/UNP/JVP.
Many Sinhalese do not see things from the "international perspective". Some are saying are saying MR/GR should have waited till after GE, after explaining the "international effect" of Gonseka on the country they went "so what". They are genuine in their concerns for the country, they want MR to get a good majority and hate Ranil for his treachery but take lightly/do not understand fully what suddha is like or tries to do. Its safe to say a lot of Sinhalese are "naive" when it comes to the operations and machinations of the West. Its the same approach that enabled Tamilia to cement to the world that they were "discriminated" while Sinhalese brushed it off as the rightful rubbish it is, they simply did nothing to counter it, and now the "discrimination" has become a fact . Same thing with the "war crimes" propaganda, they know very well none happened, so think that is enough and all is ok. At the moment it is not a "fact", however Suddhas propaganda machinery has made the "human rights" bs a "fact".
That is another boring blog - at least you are consistent.
ReplyDelete"This governmnet is not like any other, specially Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksha, when he sees a problem he faces it head on, by doing so on this matter he has averted another adversity that would have hurled upon the government and war heroes."
What you say above is arresting SF prevented investigation of top official on war crimes. So, to save few head in the country, the whole population will have to suffer due to international repressions.
Where is the wisdom?
The action MR took to take care of SF is REACTIONARY.
This is the tribal way of governing a nation.
That kind of actions has to be visionary.
One of the thing prevent a nation like Sri Lanka to have lack of visionaries is alcohol.
Over 70% of men that I know are running on Booze.
Surameraya majjapama dhattana veramani sikkapadam samadiyami.
Ane mage kata :)
Parrots of Pakisland said..
ReplyDelete"This governmnet is not like any other, specially Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksha, when he sees a problem he faces it head on, by doing so on this matter he has averted another adversity that would have hurled upon the government and war heroes."
What you say above is arresting SF prevented investigation of top official on war crimes. So, to save few head in the country, the whole population will have to suffer due to international repressions.-----------------------------------------------------------
This is why I like you.
As Barak Obama would say, you are a teachable guy.
Looks like you are learing a thing or two from beeing here. You certainly have learnt how to build an argumnet, still not correct, but you are doing a good job learning.
Here is why you are wrong.
What you say above is arresting SF prevented investigation of top official on war crimes. So, to save few head in the country........................
Nope, read my blog with patience. I its not only the top officials in the army, the whole country. Government by arresting SF, saved the whole county from repercussions of international investigations, remember its not only the top officials, the whole army will suffer. Already after SF's first comment on Gota, our army has ceased to get invitations from foreign governments on training etc.
If SF was to go on doing that kind of irresponsible talking, Tamil,-Sinhalese bonding will suffer, country could be threatened with many sanctions, international aids could stop, investors could stop, the repercussions are many.
Government by acting quicly even disregarding their own political advantage has saved the country from this disaster.
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...............the whole population will have to suffer due to international repressions.
Nope the whole population would have suffered is SF was allowed to go on on his irresponsible rampage.
It is true that there is a certain international reaction to SF's arrest, which is disadvantageous to SL, but it would have been far more disastrous if SF was allowed to babble his lies freely.
The governmnet foresaw the problem, and acted on it. None of the previous governments would have seen it coming even if they did they would have been too timid to act on it.
Read my blog patiently.